eBay iPhone Worldwide Listings Skyrocket - First 3G $1,500 Listings Appear

As predicted, eBay iphone listings jumped dramatically the day before and day of Apple's 3G release. The vast majority of the increase is clearly from the non-gray market--Apple customers who are selling their first generation iPhones to pay for the 3G version.

But there's clearly a second group of iPhone buyers who are willing to pay $450-$650 for unlocked 8GB and 16GB USED first generation iPhones. Since all iPhone owners will benefit from software version two just released by Apple, the lure of an unlocked iPhone that operates on most GSM carrier networks far exceeds the perceived value of higher download data speed and GPS. The shortage of unlocked iPhones (just over 30%) is also driving prices higher.

The locked iPhones listed in the past 48 hours may be a litmus test for Apple and AT&T in the U.S. Sellers of these used locked phones will most likely sell at substantial discounts over unlocked ones. Sellers may also find it difficult to sell the locked units unless buyers are willing to purchase the unlocking software.

Despite buyer proclivity to pay higher prices for used iPhones, the iPhone, in my eBay experience, is the first smartphone to maintain high perceived value and final selling price. Until now, most used mobile phones on eBay have sold at significant discounts from new ones.

Scalpers began appearing during the 3G launch, attempting to sell the first 3G units in the $1,000-$1,500 price range with Buy It Now, and auction bidders quickly began bidding up 3G iPhone offers close to BIN prices.

Here are the eBay iPhone stats as of Friday, 7/11 @ 10 p.m. Pacific on eBay Worldwide. Keep in mind that other sellers around the world are also selling unlocked iPhones. eBay is only indicative of trends.

• Total iPhone listings reached an unprecedented 4,000+ units *
  
  
  • Used = 3,461 (86%)
    
    
  • Unlocked = 1,453 (36%)
    
    
  • 16GB Units = 1,776 (42%) - Percentages in this breakdown based on 4,247 units
    
  • -8GB Units = 2,151 (51%)
    
  • -4GB Units = 330 (8%)
    
    
  • Selling at Auction = 3,522 (75%) - Percentages based on 4,674 units
    
  • Buy It Now = 1,052 (23%)
    
  • Best Offer - 100 (2%)
    
    
  • Free Shipping = 1,031 (22% - Unusually high)
    
  
  
• 3G iPhones = 410 (10% - 2/3 16GB models - based on 4,000 units )
  
  
  • -210 already have 10+ bids
  • -29 claimed as "unlocked" already by sellers

As of 10 p.m. tonight, eBay worldwide shows 63,879 total cell phone listings. iPhone listings remain a drop in a very big mobile phone puddle.

* Disparity in the numbers is due to spurious numbers by one lot seller and eBay including accessories in the cell phone & PDA category. To calculate the percentages, I used the advanced search feature in eBay, tried to account for approximately 1,000 units for sale by the lot seller and disregarded any accessories or software included in the wrong category.

Steve Jobs Knows What I Want and "I Need a New Phone"

Amusing. Due to the globe spinning, the 3G iPhone hit Australia, then Europe, then the U.S. It appears so far that phone activations in all countries except the U.S. are going fine. AT&T and Apple--unprepared for the onslaught--experienced software activating glitches, requiring iPhone buyers to complete the final activation at home using iTunes. Ah....well...

The fun continues on Mobile Telephony Innovations...

iPhone Dumping Continues on eBay: Sellers Worry Over 3G

Apple released its promotional Apple 3G video today, touting the improvements of the 3G iPhone. Meanwhile, rabid dumping of iPhones on eBay continues unabated. Some sellers have resorted to "Sayn Design" gold 16 GB iPhones, selling in lots of 10 for $8,500.

While calculating total iPhones for sale on eBay is time consuming, due to CECT, HTC and other's including "iphone" in the listings, here are my best estimates of iPhones for sale on eBay worldwide as of July 1st, just 10 days before Apple releases the 3G version.

Total iPhones = 2,800 (800 in lots, mostly the 16GB "gold" version)

Total Unlocked = 2,500+ (very few locked iPhones are now available as 3G approaches)

16GB Model = 1,300

8 GB Model = 1,000 (few in lots)

4 GB Model = 139

The total number of iPhones clearly doesn't total 2,800, due to listing in a category other than "cell phones & PDA's" and unclear listings about number of units.

The BIG change: According to my estimates, 90% of iPhones advertised in the past week SOLD, compared to 30% two months ago before the 3G announcement. iPhones sold through other non-eBay stores, I believe, raise the total dumping above 3,000 units.

When July 11th hits, there's no reason to believe that iPhone unlocking and re-selling through unauthorized channels will continue. Demand for unlocked units is so high that the total 8GB price of $199 + $36 activation + $175 early termination fee + $30 unlocking ($440) will not dissuade continued out-of-channel sales.

As I pointed out in an earlier post, this will hurt AT&T the most in the U.S., but will impact international carriers as well, as unlocked iPhone purchasers break contracts and purchase multiple SIM's to obtain cheaper rates in European countries and elsewhere around the world.

Moreover, with over 300,000+ unlocked iPhones already operating on China Mobile, iPhone use will rise as additional unlocked 3G units become available in the open market.

While China Mobile never signed an agreement with Apple and will benefit from further activations, other international carriers and AT&T in the U.S. will experience higher initial financial losses than expected through the subsidy. T-Mobile's emerging 3G network in the U.S. will also eat into AT&T profits as it aggressively rolls out its broadband network and iPhone users switch to T-Mobile.

Laughing all the way to the bank will be Apple, which finally realized selling iPhones at high margins, as with Macs, will bring home the bacon.

Apple 3G iPhone Impending Profit Loss for Mobile Carriers

AT&T will now subsidize the 3G iPhone, paying Apple $200 for each 8GB model, but AT&T and other carriers will no longer pay Apple a share of revenue, Apple's original profit estimate will drop.


If the unlocking contnues, as expected, AT&T's expected revenues and profits from the device will also drop. But international carriers will face the largest profit loss as millions of their customers purchase unlocked iPhones and multiple SIM's for use outside each carrier's service area. The full story on MarketingVisions.

eBay Worldwide iPhone Listings at 2,700--30% Used--HTC Touch Diamond To Market

Update on eBay Worldwide iPhone sales. Latest stats show around 2,700 iPhones of all types for sale, 30% of which are used.

HTC and other touch phone manufacturers force Apple to compete in the global handset market. "Cool" and "awesome" no longer bring home the bacon. Functionality and price will determine winners and losers in a mobispheric world.

The full story on MarketingBeyond.

Worldwide iPhone eBay Listings Rise: The Glutting Continues

iPhone eBay sales continue to rise as buyers purchase new ones and sellers ditch the 4GB and 8GB models, possibly for purchase of Apple's 16GB model. (Since one aggregator, selling around 500 units, is grouped separately, the stats are based on best estimates.)

Listings as of March 31, 2008 on eBay Worldwide show:

• 2,712 total iPhone listings (based on "cell phone," "smartphone," and "PDA" categories)
  
• 72% of iPhones are listed as "new"
• 16GB Model = 811 Units--30% of all iPhone listings, a dramatic increase since MTM's last tally
  
• 8GB Model = 1,713 (63%)
• 4GB Model = 188 (7%)
• Approximately 74% (2,000 units) are unlocked, with sellers claiming 1.1.4 firmware updates
• Quality of eBay listings varies from professional to poor, although pictures and phone descriptions are improving. Some sellers continue listing damaged iPhones as the picture above shows.
  
• More "free" iPhone listings appear in auctions whose winners are instructed how to obtain a "free" iPhone. The legitimacy of these listings is questionable.

In comparison, eBay Worldwide lists:

• 151 Nokia N95-8GB Smartphones (121 New)
  
• 66 Sony Ericsson's selling for $400+ (62 New)
  
• 75 Samsung's listed at $400+ (68 New)
  
• 66 LG's priced at $400+ (45 New)
  

Compared to Nokia and other smartphone manufacturers, the gray market glutting of iPhones continues rising on eBay Worldwide. There are now 18 times more iPhones for sale than the Nokia N95-8GB, the closest iPhone-comparable smartphone.

16GB iPhone Company Advertising on Mobile Telephone Marketing

Update: Looks like UnlockedFones.Com is advertising via Google Adsense an unlocked 16GB iPhone on MTM. Per the ad, all you have to do is insert your SIM from any GSM carrier and, voila, it works.

So much for eBay. Nokia, Sony Ericsson and other mobile phone purchasers outside the U.S. don't have to worry about unlocked phones because, with a few exceptions, they're never locked by the manufacturers, eliminating the unlocking nonsense Apple is now experiencing.

eBay iPhone Sales Continue Climbing Amid Buyer Confusion

eBay iPhone listings, although difficult to ascertain due to sellers using multiple categories, appear to have risen to 3,410. (This number, to the best of my ability, doesn't represent lots.)

Latest eBay worldwide summary:

• 3,410 total listings (again, most are single units, some are multiples).
• Around 600 of the 3,410 listings appear under two sellers who are acting as "aggregators." When clicking on these two listings, individual seller listings appear.
• 334 iPhone sellers claim their phones are "used," the rest "new," although many sellers continue to list their iPhones as "new" because they were "just used for a week or month." These are clearly "used" iPhones.
• 1,459 of the 3,410 are "unlocked"--43% of the total with sellers claiming that, of these, 92% are "new."
• Average sale price of "new" units overall is $528 (skewed by large numbers of iPhones for sale and 16GB iPhones that are growing rapidly on eBay)
• Average sale price of "used" units overall is $380, a significant drop from my observations during the past few weeks.

The accuracy of the total number of iPhones for sale on eBay is impacted by sellers listing in multiple categories. By far, most sellers are listing under "cell phones." But others are listing under "smartphones" and "PDA's. The majority of sellers listing under "lots" represent iPhone accessories. I doubt that many individual eBay sellers are listing in multiple categories due to the extra listing fees.

After reviewing several pages in all categories, I conclude the following:

• The vast majority of unlocked iPhone sales--new or used--reflects problems or confusion over 1.1.2 to 1.1.3 firmware issues. In many listings, sellers warn buyers not to sync with iTunes to avoid re-locking the phones. This alerts buyers who are becoming concerned about how unlocking affects iPhone functionality.
• Most sellers are listing single units, many used, from weeks to several months, indicating that buyers and sellers are becoming concerned about unlocking issues or dissatisfied with their initial purchases.
• 50%+ of of all iPhone sellers don't reveal why they're selling.
• Of those who do reveal,  a growing number of sellers claim they've bought 16GB units and therefore are selling their 4GB and 8GB models.
• The remaining sellers who reveal their reasons for selling say they are still under contract or have switched to other carriers, their companies bought them phones, relatives purchased a second iPhone as a gift plus other reasons. The validity of the claims is spurious.
• Most eBay iPhone sales listings look unprofessional. Photos, if taken, are blurred and item descriptions are hazy. Many iPhone sellers clearly don't know how to write an effective eBay listing. As a result, many of the listings I reviewed were incomplete and unconvincing.

I continue to believe the growing number of iPhone eBay listings represents a significant marketing challenge for Apple. Viewing blurred photos of scratched, unlocked iPhones and cut-off SIMS is the antithesis of Apple's slick advertising campaign.

iPhone Sales on eBay Worldwide: The Glutting of the Gray Market

Yesterday I reported on eBay USA iPhone sales. Here's an update based on today's worldwide iphone listings on eBay with a comparison to other mobile device listings.

• iPhone LISTINGS (includes lots) = 2,453
• One seller is offering a lot of 800 units.
• 64 other sellers are offering lots (mostly 3-5 units).
• This excludes unlocking software totaling 293 listings.
• 16Gb iPhones are selling worldwide at an average price of $750
• Comparable mobile device listings
• Nokia E90 = 29 units
• Nokia N95 = 348 units
• Sony Ericsson (All phones @$400+) = 94

Observations:

• The $400-600 mobile phone market on eBay is glutted with iPhones.
• Lot sellers are trying to dump at least 1,000 units on eBay Worldwide
• Competitive mobile device listings in the same price range are minuscule compared to the thousands of iPhones currently on sale.
• Excess inventory is driving down iPhone sale prices on auctions and Buy It Now

As an eBay mobile device seller, I've never seen so many high-end cell phones for sale at the same time. Once the same mobile phone model reaches around 500 units on eBay, the price drops dramatically and sellers must re-list one or more times at lower prices to ditch the phones.

I believe, as I've mentioned before, Apple has a distribution problem.

Update on 2/18/08. I Googled "unlock iphone imei itunes sync 2008" and got over 11,000 hits. iPhone owners who want to unlock are clearly confused about iTunes synchronization, IMEI numbers and software and firmware updates. In addition, while eBay listed 706 unlocked iPhone listings (not including lots) on the day of my first blog post, eBay now has 2,129 unlocked listings and 2,909 total listings (including lots) on 2/18/08. SIM card listings have risen to 61 for the 1.1.2 firmware upgrade only.

Easy, Easier, Fun and Love on the Apple Website

Analyzed your website recently? Is your customer service level as high as your call center's? Read about Apple's easy and fun website...then call them.

Apple's iPhone: Will it Make It in 2008?

Troy Wolverton, writing in the San Jose Mercury News, gave accolades to Apple's iPhone as "...the product [having] the most impact this year on business and technology." 

As I've written in my blogs and in response to other Mercury articles, the introduction of Apple's iPhone by Steve Jobs at MacWorld was a marketing strategy to pre-announce Apple's first mobile device quickly, then tantalize potential buyers for six months before its release. 

When Jobs and Apple realized they wouldn't make the June deadline, thousands of programmers, who otherwise would have continued working on Leopard, Apple's new operating system, were diverted to iPhone development. Meanwhile, HTC was developing its Touch phone, approved by the FCC in July, concurrent with other handset makers, furiously designing innovative Windows, Linux and Symbian-based smartphones. 

Tim Bajarin from Creative Strategies, whom the Mercury News quoted as saying " ' Apple proved they could deliver the Internet in your pocket, ' " is greatly overstated. Once iPhone buyers learned that Job's MacWorld web surfing demo used WIFI rather than AT&T's slow EDGE data network, the balloon began to burst. That's why FLASH was not designed into the first release. AT&T's EDGE data network can't support the required broadband connection. 

After new iPhone users complained about slow browsing, including David Pogue of the New York Times, Jobs tried to wiggle his way out of the dilemma claiming correctly that 3G chipsets would have increased battery drain, a sore point with iPhone customers because its battery requires factory replacement. 

That Apple has met its quota of iPhone sales is based on customer loyalty and price reductions. Meanwhile, Apple and AT&T attempted, until recently, to restrict third-party developers, who would bring innovative mobile applications to the iPhone. 

Despite serious concerns about Google's entry into wireless with its support of the Open Handset Alliance and Android/Linux-based mobile devices, Google had "the most impact this year on business and technology" in mobile space--not Apple. 

As I've written in my MarketingBeyond blog, Android-based mobile devices in 2008 will dominate the mobisphere, while Apple, at best, will release a 3G iPhone globally, competing with Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and others. Whether Apple can pull it off is a question mark.