Apple released its promotional Apple 3G video today, touting the improvements of the 3G iPhone. Meanwhile, rabid dumping of iPhones on eBay continues unabated. Some sellers have resorted to "Sayn Design" gold 16 GB iPhones, selling in lots of 10 for $8,500.
While calculating total iPhones for sale on eBay is time consuming, due to CECT, HTC and other's including "iphone" in the listings, here are my best estimates of iPhones for sale on eBay worldwide as of July 1st, just 10 days before Apple releases the 3G version.
Total iPhones = 2,800 (800 in lots, mostly the 16GB "gold" version)
Total Unlocked = 2,500+ (very few locked iPhones are now available as 3G approaches)
16GB Model = 1,300
8 GB Model = 1,000 (few in lots)
4 GB Model = 139
The total number of iPhones clearly doesn't total 2,800, due to listing in a category other than "cell phones & PDA's" and unclear listings about number of units.
The BIG change: According to my estimates, 90% of iPhones advertised in the past week SOLD, compared to 30% two months ago before the 3G announcement. iPhones sold through other non-eBay stores, I believe, raise the total dumping above 3,000 units.
When July 11th hits, there's no reason to believe that iPhone unlocking and re-selling through unauthorized channels will continue. Demand for unlocked units is so high that the total 8GB price of $199 + $36 activation + $175 early termination fee + $30 unlocking ($440) will not dissuade continued out-of-channel sales.
As I pointed out in an earlier post, this will hurt AT&T the most in the U.S., but will impact international carriers as well, as unlocked iPhone purchasers break contracts and purchase multiple SIM's to obtain cheaper rates in European countries and elsewhere around the world.
Moreover, with over 300,000+ unlocked iPhones already operating on China Mobile, iPhone use will rise as additional unlocked 3G units become available in the open market.
While China Mobile never signed an agreement with Apple and will benefit from further activations, other international carriers and AT&T in the U.S. will experience higher initial financial losses than expected through the subsidy. T-Mobile's emerging 3G network in the U.S. will also eat into AT&T profits as it aggressively rolls out its broadband network and iPhone users switch to T-Mobile.
Laughing all the way to the bank will be Apple, which finally realized selling iPhones at high margins, as with Macs, will bring home the bacon.
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