Friday, July 11, 2008

eBay iPhone Worldwide Listings Skyrocket - First 3G $1,500 Listings Appear

As predicted, eBay iphone listings jumped dramatically the day before and day of Apple's 3G release. The vast majority of the increase is clearly from the non-gray market--Apple customers who are selling their first generation iPhones to pay for the 3G version.

But there's clearly a second group of iPhone buyers who are willing to pay $450-$650 for unlocked 8GB and 16GB USED first generation iPhones. Since all iPhone owners will benefit from software version two just released by Apple, the lure of an unlocked iPhone that operates on most GSM carrier networks far exceeds the perceived value of higher download data speed and GPS. The shortage of unlocked iPhones (just over 30%) is also driving prices higher.

The locked iPhones listed in the past 48 hours may be a litmus test for Apple and AT&T in the U.S. Sellers of these used locked phones will most likely sell at substantial discounts over unlocked ones. Sellers may also find it difficult to sell the locked units unless buyers are willing to purchase the unlocking software.

Despite buyer proclivity to pay higher prices for used iPhones, the iPhone, in my eBay experience, is the first smartphone to maintain high perceived value and final selling price. Until now, most used mobile phones on eBay have sold at significant discounts from new ones.

Scalpers began appearing during the 3G launch, attempting to sell the first 3G units in the $1,000-$1,500 price range with Buy It Now, and auction bidders quickly began bidding up 3G iPhone offers close to BIN prices.

Here are the eBay iPhone stats as of Friday, 7/11 @ 10 p.m. Pacific on eBay Worldwide. Keep in mind that other sellers around the world are also selling unlocked iPhones. eBay is only indicative of trends.

  • Total iPhone listings reached an unprecedented 4,000+ units *

    • Used = 3,461 (86%)

    • Unlocked = 1,453 (36%)

    • 16GB Units = 1,776 (42%) - Percentages in this breakdown based on 4,247 units
    • -8GB Units = 2,151 (51%)
    • -4GB Units = 330 (8%)

    • Selling at Auction = 3,522 (75%) - Percentages based on 4,674 units
    • Buy It Now = 1,052 (23%)
    • Best Offer - 100 (2%)

    • Free Shipping = 1,031 (22% - Unusually high)

  • 3G iPhones = 410 (10% - 2/3 16GB models - based on 4,000 units )

    • -210 already have 10+ bids
    • -29 claimed as "unlocked" already by sellers
As of 10 p.m. tonight, eBay worldwide shows 63,879 total cell phone listings. iPhone listings remain a drop in a very big mobile phone puddle.

* Disparity in the numbers is due to spurious numbers by one lot seller and eBay including accessories in the cell phone & PDA category. To calculate the percentages, I used the advanced search feature in eBay, tried to account for approximately 1,000 units for sale by the lot seller and disregarded any accessories or software included in the wrong category.

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